http://www.bloggingcanadians.ca/NonPartisan/model_predictions_are_much_poorer_than_an_elementary_prediction_based_on_the_time_average/ Predicting the past…Assessment of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series[…] In this study, we have retrieved temperature and precipitation records, at least 100-year long, from a number of stations worldwide. We have also retrieved a number of climatic model outputs, extracted the time series for the grid points closest [...] Fri, 23 May 2008 23:02:25 PDT en